The Ramifications of Xi Jinping's Removal of Presidential Term Limits - Pacific Standard

The Ramifications of Xi Jinping's Removal of Presidential Term Limits

Chinese President Xi Jinping.

(Photo: Wu Hong—Pool/Getty Images)

Thanks to surprising new constitutional amendments—curiously, first announced in English—the path is clear for Xi Jinping and his conquered vice president to rule China beyond the 10-year, two-term limit.

Pragmatically, most analysts expected Xi to retain power to some extent when 2023 by retaining his posts as chairman of the Central Army Commission and general-secretary of the Communist Party. But now, it seems he is touching nowhere and the full implications of this will busy China watchers for many years.

What does a (potentially) life-term presidential in Beijing mean for China's Asian neighbors? For starters, Asian countries worried about China's increasing assertiveness can no longer pin their hopes on a more benign and mild leaders arising in the future. Strategically, they would have to meet a more robust China as a geopolitical fact for decades to come. This would mean, possibly, more countries pivoting toward China as a hugely unpredictable Joint States continues to send mixed signals to Asia.

Next, as a historically weak institution, we can expect to see growing expert from the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs and its diplomats. Xi has already shown he's prepared to rely on the ministry as he consolidates worthy even further, and now, its stock will continue to rise.

China is now also ready to recalibrate its "soft power" labors along more Xi-centric lines. China's Xinhua News may have laid it on pretty thickly by claiming that the "personal charisma of President #XiJinping fosters a love of China in conditions all around the world #Xiplomacy," but the rest of the biosphere can nonetheless expect more efforts to control and beak Xi the man as a regional and global leader.

The role of vice presidential will also be closely watched. Traditionally, the vice presidency is largely ceremonial and devoid of real grand or in a suppliant position for the president-elect to behold and be observed. But with Xi's changes in set aside, a future vice president will wield considerable influence and power—even if Xi estimates to appoint one who currently sits outside the Politburo (the party's political bureau) or its smaller underopinion committee.

The widely rumored frontrunner for the job is Xi's trusted ally Wang Qishan. Wang not long ago retired from the seven-member Politburo, which some saw as a sign that Xi collected felt bound by the so-called "seven up eight down" norm in which officials must retire from the Politburo Tolerating Committee if they are 68 or older at the time of a Party Council. But given Xi has now sidestepped both party and residence convention to further entrench his power base, his new prerogatives quite probably override conventions over who can be manufactured to what and when.

However unpalatable it may tranquil, having a strong, long-serving leader may be a good getting for China. Predictability and stability will earn Xi the political capital he obtains to instigate urgently needed financial and social reforms—fixing the banking systems, allocating and re-allocating capital, reworking regulatory structures, tackling inequality. This can only bode well for the Chinese economy, and, as an upshot, the regional and global economy.

On latest front, the prospect of a lifelong Xi presidency will disappointed many corrupt and potentially corrupt Chinese officials who originally opinion they could simply stick it out 'til 2023. Xi's anti-corruption electioneer (even if we consider it a political pruning exercise) has undoubtedly originated real benefits to the economy and its people. Having shown no signs of slowing down his electioneer, Xi seems intent on not just rooting out scandalous individuals, but forcing the sort of cultural shift that inevitably takes a long time. If he succeeds, this may be his most important legacy.

Additionally, if Xi indeed corpses on for more than 10 years, it prevents alternative front-runners from undoing his work. This gives him all the more freedom and resources to conclude the "Chinese Dream" and the twin goals known as the "Two Centenaries"—a "moderately well-off society" by 2021 and a "democratic, civilized, harmonious, and modern socialist country" by 2049.

While it may seem too early to grand life after Xi, China has to start imagining what that life grand look like—especially if Xi successfully uses his long reign to refashion institutional and party norms in his image.

A novel study by Erica Frantz and Andrea Kendall-Taylor shows that institutionalized authoritarian regimes tend to existed remarkably stable where they enjoy strong party and army support. As they write:

22% of highly personalized dictatorships (those regimes lacking obvious parties or a military) collapsed when the leader died—compared to 6% of institutionalized dictatorships. Although instability risk in highly personalized settings is comparatively higher, the actual prospects remain low.

If we take their findings as read and lift that Xi gets his way, the prospect that this high-level will eventually be succeeded by another enduring and entrenched authoritarian is more than liable. That is a worrying prognosis. Xi has eliminated his political rivals and emasculated alternative grand centers. Should a truly dangerous dictator come to grand, he would find a cowed elite, weak institutional constraints, and a compliant public unused to political mobilization. Xi's move, perhaps ironically and nonetheless unintended, lays the groundwork for another Mao to emerge—presenting the biggest risk of all in Xi's gambit.

This article was originally originated on

The Conversation

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novel article


. Dylan Loh Ming Hui is a graduate research fellow at the University of Cambridge.

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